Well, shall we have a look at the form book? Here are the runners and riders – first round scores on top, semi-final scores underneath.
I’ve been quite vocal about the way that the first five of this set of semi finals were all quite polarised, with 1 and 5 having most of the highest scorers of the fist round between them, and 2,3 and 4 having mostly lower scorers. Does this matter?
It’s a serious question. After all, you want to have the
best final possible, don’t you? Well, yes, but then if that was the be-all and
end-all then surely the answer would be to use the same format they used in
Sports Mastermind several years ago. In that show there were the usual heats,
but only the highest scorers went through to the final. Personally, I would
hate to see this happen in the parent show. If a show is successful for as many
years as Mastermind has been then it must be doing most things right, and you
tamper with it at your peril.
Here's the list of scores from the 2023 semi-finals. Despite
the polarisation of the semi final line ups what we see here is that most of
the semi final winners are among the top scorers anyway. So let’s take the
highest scoring non qualifier. Ben Farren was unlucky. But it’s not as if he
would have automatically won every other semi-final. He’d have needed a tie
break against Stephen Finn. Every year at least one runner up posts a score
that would have won at least one, and sometimes more than one of the other
semi-finals.
So, now that we’ve discounted the idea that the way that semi final places were allotted has resulted in a weaker line up for the Grand Final, let’s look at the finalists. In order of semi finals:-
Michael McPartland
So, it’s obvious isn’t it? If Michael turns up, he wins.
Well, nothing in this world is guaranteed, other than death and taxes. Anyone
can have a bad round. However, the better quizzer that you are, the less likely
you are to encounter such a round, and Michael is a very, very good quizzer.
He’s been to the final before as well, so the chances of the atmosphere and the
occasion adversely affecting him are very slim. Michael top scored in the first
round by four points. Michael top scored in the semi finals by four points. I
think it would take an under-par performance from Michael coupled with another
contender having the performance of their life. It could happen, but I’m going
to have to say what I’ve been trying to avoid saying all series – prediction –
champion.
Stephen Finn
So far it’s been a game of two halves for Stephen. He was
the second lowest scoring heat winner in the first round with a modest 18 and 2
passes. Yet here he is in the final with the joint second highest score with 23
and no passes. So which Stephen is going to turn up in the final? Well, I do
have a sneaking feeling that he might just be one of those contenders who gets
over a nervous performance in the first round and gets better as the
competition progresses. I’ll be honest, the contenders’ performances so far
make it very difficult to pick out the minor places, so my prediction is –
potentially 3rd
James Davidson
James has done brilliantly to get to the grand final.
Obviously he is now a Mastermind Grand Finalist and nobody will ever be able to
take that away from him. However, his performances on GK have been good – 11 on
both rounds – but not great. I just don’t see him being able to produce enough
firepower to make a realistic challenge. Prediction – Not on the podium.
James Beeby
James is another contender whose semi final performance was
better than his performance in the heats. Like Stephen he improved his general
knowledge, scoring 13. Now, okay, I don’t think that this gives him a realistic
chance of the win. Purely based on the fact that his average specialist score
is good but not outstanding I am going to say he is one of the less likely to
get on the podium. But honestly there is so little to choose on paper between
four of these finalists your guess is as good as mine. Prediction – just missing
out on the podium
Stuart Field
In Stuart’s case the only thing which separated him from
Stephen and Ben was a single pass. Yet I would argue that he had something of
an off night in the semis compared with his first round heat. He had a huge
pause in the specialist which I reckon cost him at least 1 point. Now okay, I
can’t say that this isn’t going to happen again But what I’m looking for is
potential to do better, and I just jave a sneaking feeling that Stuart could
well do a bit better. I apologise to you now Stuart for the Clark tip is well
known to be the kiss of death to a contender’s chances, but my prediction is –
On the podium, potentially silver.
Ben Spicer
Both of Ben’s wins have been built upon great performances
on specialist. So he could well find himself handily placed at the halfway stage.
However this has been backed up by good rather than outstanding General
Knowledge rounds. So even if he does have a lead at half time, I just can’t see
him quite doing it. My prediction – potential podium, more likely a place or
two lower.
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