Saturday, 3 August 2013

Only Connect - Grand Final Preview

Well, a quick check on the iplayer reveals that there will be no third place play off this series. That’s a shame. Still, it does mean that we can focus entirely on the upcoming Celts v. Francophiles final.

Let’s begin by looking at their records

There’s not a lot to choose is there? On paper we see that since the semis the Francophiles’ average total has risen to slightly more than 26, while the Celts’ has fallen to slightly more than 23. So it’s the Francophiles, then? Well, those are still two very close averages. So let’s take a little bit of a closer look. The Francs destroyed the Carts’ chances in the semis with a stellar performance on the second round. The Celts have never had a bad second round, but their scores have decreased. Both teams are good wall performers. The Celts have a 10 and two 7s, and the Francs have two maximums and a 6. Both teams are also very solid and safe vowel performers. Even if we look at their respective performances against Cartophiles and Festival Fans – both finalists defeated both of these teams – it doesn’t help a great deal, as the performances again are very similar.

So what we come down to is gut feeling. Now, I have no statistical basis for saying this, but I just have the feeling that the Francophiles may be slightly – and I do mean only slightly – the team with the wider coverage. I don’t think that they are ever going to score much less than they have scored all series. On the other hand I think that the Celts fared slightly less well with the harder questions in the semi than they had done previously. It is just possible that another hike in the level of difficulty may separate the two teams. Of course I could be totally wrong, and I apologise to both teams in advance – to the Francophiles for giving them the kiss of death that is the Clark tip – and to the Celts for tipping them for silver rather than gold.

Best of luck to both teams.

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