Quarter Final Preview
Well, let’s try to pick the bones out of this, shall we?
Let’s have a look at the stats :-
Does that help? Well, the picture isn’t necessarily as clear as it maybe looks. I have sorted the results according to the average score across the two rounds, or the 3 in the case of Newnham and Bristol. You’d maybe say that you can perm any four out of Durham, Robert Gordon, Southampton, Jesus and Durham to go through to the semi-finals. Hang on, though.
For a start, this doesn’t take into account the strength of
the opposition. With all due respect to the teams involved, you’d have to say
that Durham’s second round opponents really didn’t perform well, while UCL’s were
one of the best teams in the whole of the second round in my opinion. Then
again, let’s take Newnham. Their highest score out of their three matches is
lower than the average score of all of the teams above them on the table. Their
bonus conversion rate average is less than forty percent. You’d say they are
highly unlikely to make it to the semis. Yet in both the repechage and the 2nd
round they strangled their opponents on the buzzer. They weren’t converting
their bonuses very well, but they were keeping their noses ahead on the buzzer.
Even Royal Holloway managed a 62.5 percent bonus conversion rate in their first
round.
So where do I see the semi-finalists, then? At the risk of
cursing their chances, Bristol have played three high quality matches so far, losing
just the first of them. In every match so far they have managed a higher than
55 percent conversion rate. I’d be surprised if they didn’t get to the semis. I
have to pick UCL as well. They have had two tough matches and won both. They
are extremely consistent as well with the highest average bonus conversion rate
of all 8 quarter final teams.
As for the rest, well, working my way down the table,
Durham could do it because they’re sharp on the buzzer. They are one of the
more likely semi finalists from the other 6. I worry about Robert Gordon’s
conversion rate, and I do wonder if they will find the other teams too hot to
handle on the buzzer. You have to respect their average score, but I would be a
bit surprised if they make it. Southampton look a pretty useful each way bet,
although there’s really not a great deal to choose between them and Jesus,
Oxford. Neither of these would be a great shock. I have Newnham and Royal
Holloway as underdogs, but then as we say, matches aren’t played on paper. Best
of luck to all of the teams.
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