Mastermind 2023: Let's have a look at the scores on the doors

It’s been a while since I did any number crunching on Mastermind. Tomorrow’s subjects are

The Lord of the Rings by JRR Tolkein

The Great Fire of London

Film adaptations of Shakespeare Tragedies

The Career of John Barnes

I want to stress that I am nowhere near an expert at all on any one of those subjects. However I do feel that it is possible that I might get one or two on each of them, which just gives me an opportunity for my a shot at a half decent unwikied aggregate. So I haven’t wikied, and that’s left me just a little bit of time to start doing just a little statistical analysis on the series so far, as far as my frankly unimpressive arithmetical skills have allowed.

 So, there’s been 19 shows. The aggregates and average scores are in the table below:-

Aggregate Specialist round score	Aggregate specialist round passes	Aggregate GK round score	Aggregate GK round passes	Aggregate Total score	Aggregate total passes
688	45	758	102	1446	145
Average Specialist round score	Average Specialist round passes	Average GK Round Score	Average GK round passes	Average Total score	Average total passes
9.052632	0.592105	9.973684	1.342105	19.02632	1.907895

I don’t reckon that’s too bad when you get right down to it. Let’s look at just the heat winners now. Just the heat winners’ aggregates and averages are in the next table:- 

Aggregate Specialist round score	Aggregate specialist round passes	Aggregate GK round score	Aggregate GK round passes	Aggregate Total score	Aggregate total passes
214	3	227	11	441	13
Average Specialist round score	Average Specialist round passes	Average GK Round Score	Average GK round passes	Average Total score	Average total passes
11.889	0.1667	12.611	0.6111	24.5	0.7222

 It makes for an interesting comparison. 5 points is a significant margin, and the average winner scores five points more than the average contender  (and remember, the winners are also included within the overall contender averages.) How typical this is I have no idea since I haven’t done this with a previous series.

Of course, you have to remember especially when looking at the winners’ averages that we’re only dealing with a small number of winners – 19 to be precise. Not only that, but there is frankly a massive range within that small field – from 31, the current top score of the series, down to 17, the current lowest winning score of the series. Speaking of which there are currently 4 runners up who scored more highly than the average winner, and another 2 who are only half a point below the average. Yes, I know, that’s the vicissitudes of tournament play, but I’m still allowed to sympathise when someone can score one of the top 10 scores in the whole of the first round (so far) but they still don’t get to the semi-final. 

Let’s take a little look at the perennial old question – are popular entertainment rounds easier than other rounds? Here’s the figures for TV – Films – Music – and also for sport 

Subject	No of rounds	Aggregate	Average	Passes	Average
TV	14	119	8.5	10	0.7143
Film	9	80	8.8889	7	0.7778
Music	9	78	8.6667	7	0.7778
TV/FilmMusic Total	32	277	8.6563	24	0.75
Sport	4	37	9.25	0	0

 Look how close each of those averages are. Yes, the entertainment rounds average less than the average for all specialist rounds, but there really is very little in it. TV is only a smidgen more than half a point less, while the highest, sport is only a quarter of a point higher than the average for all specialist rounds.

 Alright, we are only dealing with very small numbers. Nevertheless, isn’t it reassuring that what we’ve always said, these subjects are perfectly valid in their own right and do not confer any advantage on those who opt for them seems to be borne out by the figures? Which seems to point to what I would have thought was obvious – the only way to give yourself an advantage on specialist is to work as hard and as effectively as you can to learn your subject.