Mastermind 2022 Grand Final Preview

Right, I suppose you want me to tell you who is going to win the Grand Final. Well, there’s a couple of ways that we can try to do this. We could start by looking at the statistics.

	Name	Subject	SS	pass	GK	pass	Total	pass
R1	Patrick Buckingham	Francis I of France	13	0	14	0	27	0
SF	Patrick Buckingham	Jean Harlow	13	0	13	0	26	0
Average			13	0	13.5	0	26.5	0
R1	Sarah Trevarthen	Rocky Horror	13	0	15	0	28	0
SF	Sarah Trevarthen	Pulp	13	0	10	0	23	0 (tie break)
Average			13	0	12.5	0	25.5	0
R1	Anthony Fish	Alfred Hitchcock films of the 1950s	14	0	16	0	30	0
SF	Anthony Fish	20th century world heavyweight boxing championship fights	13	0	14	1	27	1
Average			13.5	0	15	0.5	28.5	0.5
R1	Eleanor Ayres	Catherine de Medici	9	0	12	0	21	0
SF	Eleanor Ayres	The History of York Minster	11	1	17	0	28	1
Average			10	0.5	14.5	0	24.5	0.5
R1	Alice Walker	Rodgers and Hammerstein Musicals	11	0	15	0	26	0
SF	Alice Walker	Julia Margaret Cameron	13	0	11	0	24	0 (tie break)
Average			12	0	13	0	25	0
R1	Ian Wang	The Music of Beyonce	12	0	12	0	24	0
SF	Ian Wang	The Films of Studio Ghibli	15	0	11	0	26	0
Average			13.5	0	11.5	0	25	0

Taking a purely statistical approach, if we go by the average scores for both the 1^st round and semi final of each contender, then that predicts the podium places are most likely to go to Anthony Fish, Patrick Buckingham and Sarah Trevarthen. But that’s based on a very limited range of numbers, though. So I think that it would be appropriate to also take a qualitative approach, and examine each of our finalists in a little more detail. Working from Semi final 1 to Semi final 6. . .

Ian Wang

Ian’s semi final win was built on a superb specialist round. 15 is just about as good as it was possible to get in the semis. His 12 in the heats was good – certainly good enough – but in order to give himself any realistic chance he has to produce as close to a perfect specialist round as possible in the final. I say this because I don’t feel that his GK is quite good enough at this stage in his quiz career. He has the lowest average score on GK and I think he’ll need by far his best performance on GK to have a chance of winning. He may well do that, but I have to go on the evidence we’ve seen so far, and on my gut feeling. Prediction – potential podium but more likely not quite.

Alice Walker

Alice posted the 5^th highest score in the first-round heats. Looking at her stats, there’s an interesting inversion of her scores between the 1^st round and the semi-final. She scored 11 on specialist in the heat, then 13 in the semi, whereas she scored 15 on GK in the heat, but only 11 in the semi. This meant that she only won through after a tense tie break. I was very impressed with her GK in the heat, and much less impressed with it in the semi, which suggests that it could be all down to the question set that she receives on the day. Well, Mastermind isn’t always won by the most consistent performer. Having said that though I think she has less of a chance than some of the other finalists. Prediction – most likely outside the medals.

Eleanor Ayres

Eleanor has the lowest average score from the heats and semis. However, this is entirely due to her modest first round performance. Only 4 heat winners came through with a lower combined total. However, come the semi-final, she was a revelation. Her 28, built on the back of a monster total of 17 on GK, was the highest score of all of the semis. I’ll come to that. She worries me a little on specialist, having scored 9 in the heat and 11 in the semi. I’m pretty certain that she’ll need to improve on this to give herself a reasonable chance. As for GK, well 12 in the heats was pretty good, but nowhere near as good as that semi final performance. That showed that, if the questions fall the right way, Sarah is capable of setting an extremely high total. Likewise, if she gets an unhelpful set, then the opposite is possible. Prediction – you tell me. Anything could happen.

Anthony Fish

In terms of pure numbers, Anthony must be highly rated in any preview of the final. He top scored in the heats, being the only contender in the whole series so far to reach 30 points. Scores of 14 and 13 on very different specialist subjects suggests that his preparation will again be excellent. Scores of 16 and 14 on GK also show that he is one of the best of these contenders in General Knowledge. To be honest, he has shown so little in the way of weakness in this series that it’s very difficult to argue with the tale of the numbers here. Prediction – Potential champion.

Sarah Trevarthen

Sarah has had a Mastermind journey almost like an inverted image of Eleanor’s. She performed brilliantly in the heats, with the second highest score, 28. Yet she had the lowest winning score of any of the semis and had to endure a tie break to win her place in the final. We can be certain that she will prepare her specialist subject very well, in all likelihood well enough to be at least close to the leader at the turnaround. If she produces a GK round like the one she had in her heat, then she’s a potential champ. If she only produces a modest GK round of the sort she had in the semi-final, then she might not even find herself on the podium. Such are the variables we have to take into account when considering this grand final. Prediction potentially podium.

Patrick Buckingham

I feel far less uncertainty about Patrick, on paper at least. Like Anthony, Patrick appears to be a very consistent performer. With two scores of 13 on specialist we can be as sure as we can that he should be up near the head of the field when the half time oranges are brought out. A 14 and a 13 show a consistently good level of General Knowledge as well. I don’t see him scoring much less than this on the night in GK and potentially he could well have his highest GK score, which would put him right up there. Prediction: Potential champion, more likely silver medal.

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There it is then. I have no prior knowledge of the outcome and will be as interested as every other viewer to see how it will all turn out. Apologies to those I’ve tipped for success, so often the kiss of death to contenders.