University Challenge 2026 Grand Final Preview

 The Tale of the Tape

	1st rd F	1st rd A	2nd rd F	2nd rd A	QF1 F	QF1 A	QF2 F	QF2 A	QF3 F	QF3 A	SF F	SF A
Edinburgh	200	105	180	150	195	80	105	85	/	/	155	110
Manchester	170	150	160	135	80	195	150	120	185	135	250	70

 

	For - Average	Against - Average	Margin - Average
Edinburgh	167	106	61
Manchester	166	115	51

 

Well, before we think about my comparative performance tables, let’s consider the fact that these teams met in the first set of quarter finals. Back then, it wasn’t really close. Edinburgh won by 195-80.

So are we looking at a foregone conclusion in the final? No. I’ve read my review of that quarter final match, and everything comes back to the starters. It usually does. In that match Manchester skipper Kai Madgwick answered 5 starters correctly. Now compared with his 10 in the semi final that looks as if it’s famine rations, while actually it’s a good performance. But nobody else in the Manchester team managed to answer a starter correctly. In a match where the skipper was getting beaten on the buzzer more than usual it really needed another member of the team to help ease the pressure just a little. As it was Johnny Richards of Edinburgh scored 7 starters which was more than Manchester scored all evening.

Alright, then, now let’s look at the comparative performances. There is only a 1 point difference in the teams’ average scores. When you factor in that on average Edinburgh’s average points difference is +61, while Manchester’s is+51, and that is affected by the match between the teams, then this suggests that they are a lot closer than their quarter final match suggests. There was no other team that faced both of our finalists so we don’t have that to compare.

Bearing this in mind, we have to speculate on why the score wasn’t closer when the teams met in the quarters. Maybe Edinburgh are just that tad faster on the buzzer and we’ll see a similar result in the final. That’s certainly possible. But there are other possible explanations. Maybe that particular set of starters happened to be more closely aligned to Edinburgh’s knowledge than Manchester, though the sheer blind luck of the draw. Maybe Johnny Richards was having an especially good night while Kai Madgwick was having an off night. That’s possible.

I always like a team which has people who can answer a wide enough range of starters in up to three of their seats. Edinburgh look stronger to me on this score than Manchester look. Now I grant you that a player who can answer you 10 starters in an evening has the ability to carry you to a win if they are on song. However the other side of that particular coin is that you are reliant on them not having a bad night. Last week we saw one of this series’ finest buzzers, Oscar O’Flanagan, having such a night. It can happen.

Mind you, that was largely because Kai Madgwick and his team started the contest at such a tremendous pace and it meant that Oscar and Imperial were forced to gamble and come in a little bit too early. What might happen, I wonder, if Manchester manage to get off to a similar start against Edinburgh? By the end of the quarters Edinburgh were the only unbeaten team left in the series. How will they cope if they find themselves under real pressure for the first time in this series?

Twist my arm behind my back and I’ll say Edinburgh to win, but if Kai Madgwick has another blinder that prediction won’t matter a damn.

Can’t wait.