University Challenge Grand Final 2025 Preview

The Tale of the Tape

Christ’s Cambridge

Round	Opponents	For	Against	Margin	BCR
1	Exeter College, Cambridge	205	110	95	58
2	St. Edmund Hall	215	100	115	57
QF1	Imperial	180	160	20	60
QF2	Warwick	205	155	50	62
SF	Bristol	220	50	170	58
Total		1025	525	500	295
Average		205	101	100	59

 Warwick

1	UAE	275	125	150	68
2	Oriel, Oxford	215	110	105	70
QF1	Queen’s Belfast	215	95	120	46
QF2	Christ’s Cambridge	155	205	-50	40
QF3	UCL	220	125	95	63
SF	Darwin, Cambridge	180	160	20	61
Total		1260	800	440	340
Average		210	133	71	57

Well, I promised that I wasn’t going to make predictions about the Mastermind Grand Final this year, but I gave no such undertaking about University Challenge.

So what do the statistics tell us? Well, the first statistic that I will draw your eye towards is the fact that these two teams have met before, in the quarters. Both had won every match up to this point. It was Christ’s who had a clear fifty point win.

Christ’s have allowed an average of 101 points to be scored against them in each match, to Warwick’s 133. Their average winning margin has been 100 points, while Warwick’s has been 71. So a clear win for Christ’s then?

Well, hang on a moment. Let’s look at that quarter final meeting. For Christ’s were only 1 starter better than Warwick. That margin of victory was achieved through a BCR that was 20 percent higher than Warwick’s. When it comes to bonus conversion, Christ’s are extremely consistent, with a low of 57 percent and a high of 62. Warwick, on the other hand, although they have an average BCR of 57, are far less consistent, ranging from a low of 40 to a high of 70 percent. So, if Warwick can get close to their best BCR it changes the complexion of the match too.

Let’s think about the buzzer. Again, this is by no means clear cut. In both teams all four members buzz and get starters. Both teams have buzzing captains in the two Oscars, Despard for Christ’s and Siddle for Warwick. Both teams have brilliant starter machines in the shape of Brendan Bethlehem for Christ’s and Thomas Hart for Warwick. In the semi final Thomas Hart didn’t manage to find his buzzing range until the last ten minutes or so of the match – if this happens again he may find it’s too late to snatch victory. Brendan Bethlehem has, like his team, been remarkably consistent. He seems to know things that none of the opposition knows and that’s worth its weight in gold in UC.

So, what’s the prediction, Dave? On balance there is not really that much separating the teams. If both were to equal their best score of the series, for example, Warwick would win. However, I think that Christ’s are our more likely winners. They have a level of performance that they have ever really dropped beneath throughout the whole series.

Whatever the case, I’m really looking forward to it.