Mastermind 2018: Grand Final Preview

Shall we have a look at the statistics, dearly beloved? Why not?

Kyle Nagendra	The X-Men Films	9	2	11	2	20	4
	The Films of James Cameron	14	0	12	4	26	4
Aggregate		23	2	23	6	46	8
Brian Chesney	The Giordano Bruno Novels of SJ Parris	11	0	12	1	23	1
	Harold Wilson	15	0	15	1	30	1
Aggregate		26	0	27	2	53	2
Ken Morland	The Works of HP Lovecraft	9	1	11	0	20	1
	Red Dwarf	14	0	14	3	28	3
Aggregate		23	1	25	3	48	4
Michael Taylor	The films of Paul Thomas Anderson	11	0	12	0	23	0
	U2	14	1	14	4	28	5
Aggregate		25	1	26	4	51	5
Alfred Williams	The Life and Music of Eric Satie	10	0	15	1	25	1
	The Life and Times of Alfred the Great	15	0	16	3	31	3
Aggregate		25	0	31	4	56	4
Ben Holmes	The Graphic Novels of Daniel Clowes	10	2	13	0	23	0
	Dr. Who 2005 - date	15	0	14	1	29	1
Aggregate		25	2	27	1	52	1

Now, let’s state for the record that statistics only tell you so much. Any of the 6 people who reach a Mastermind Grand Final CAN win it. All the statistics tell us is who is most likely to do it based on performance in the series so far. So what do these statistics tell us?

Both Kyle Nagendra and Ken Morland look less likely to win than the other finalists, according to the statistics. Kyle had a fine GK round in the semis, but he was a couple of points behind the leaders as the half time oranges were brought out. He certainly can’t afford that in the final, and even then his GK score last night, good as it was, was still the joint lowest of our 6 finalists. Can he win? Of course he can, but the formbook points to a lower finish than that.

Ken Morland looked shocked when it was announced that he had won his semi and was through to the final. His semi final performance was similar to Kyle’s and again, he’ll need to do a little better on his specialist if he’s not going to be behind going into the GK. His semi final GK again was joint lowest in the semis. Can Ken win? Sure he can, but again, my gut feeling is that he’ll be amongst the chasing pack.

Next contender of this all male group whose chances we should look at is Michael Taylor. If you look at the aggregate scores of Michael, Ben and Brian, there is virtually nothing to choose between them. Looking at Michael’s scores, what they reveal is that this is a contender who performs at a consistently high level. The evidence suggests that he’ll prepare well for his specialist, which means it will all come down to GK. His chances must be taken seriously. I think the most likely outcome for him is a podium spot, but he can win it, make no doubt.

I’d say the same for Ben Holmes too. His GK aggregate is slightly higher than Michael’s, but there’s really nothing in it. Again, I want to stress this, Ben’s stats suggest that he is perfectly capable of becoming a Mastermind champion, and a worthy one he would be. The fact that I’m not tipping him to win has a great deal more to do with the quality of our last two contenders than any deficiency in Ben.

Twist my arm behind my back and force me down off the fence, and I’d tell you that I think two of the contenders are more likely winners than the other 4. The first of this dynamic duo is Brian Chesney. Brian is a former runner up – last time out in 2014 he lost out on passes to our own Clive Dunning. Now there is a precedent to this. In 2003, the first series of the Humphrys Ers, the great Geoff Thomas was runner up to Andy Page. 3 years later he came back and carried all before him in the series that saw my own Mastermind debut. Consider also the fact that Brian is a Brain of Britain runner up, and you can see how foolish it would be to dismiss Brian’s chances. I have never seen him put in an under par performance in his 5 Mastermind appearances so far. I can’t see that he won’t be in the reckoning. However, to win he’ll have to beat a very serious contender indeed.

Alfred Williams looks like a winner to me. There – sorry Alfred, I’ve maybe jinxed your chances there. But every single round he’s put in so far has been quality. In particular that 15 on GK in the semis was truly outstanding – and that after a 16 on GK in the heats. There’s an air of assurance about Alfred when he’s in the chair – he looks as if he never expects to get one wrong, and he doesn’t let it bother him in the slightest on the few occasions when he does. So yes, I think the most likely winners are Brian and Alfred, and of the two, I just think that Alfred has looked more likely during this series.

But hey, what do I know? There may only be 5 GK questions in the whole show that you don’t know, but if they all come out in the middle of your own round, what can you do? Anyone is capable of having a bad night – although the better quizzer that you are the fewer and further between these should be. I wish all 6 contenders the very best of retrospective luck, and hope that you all enjoyed the experience.

The final itself will be shown on Good Friday, so no Mastermind next week. Shame.