Mastermind Grand Final Preview

If we boil it down purely to a matter of statistics, then here it is.

Heat	Isabelle Heward	The Life and Films of Rita Hayworth	12	0	14	0	26	0
Semi	Isabelle Heward	The Daughters of George III	9	0	12	0	21	0
Heat	Mohan Mudigonda	Nirvana	11	1	12	3	23	4
Semi	Mohan Modigonda	The Asterix Stories 1961-1987	10	1	12	3	22	4
Heat	Steven Marc Rhodes	Nicholas Hawksmoor	12	0	19	0	31	0
Semi	Steven Marc Rhodes	Herbert Howells	13	0	10	0	23	0
Heat	Lynn Edwards	The Forsyte Novels by John Galsworthy	15	0	15	0	30	0
Semi	Lynn Edwards	Mary of Teck	8	0	13	0	21	0
Heat	Frances Slack	The Musicals of Rodgers and Hammerstein	12	0	17	0	29	0
Semi	Frances Slack	The Films of William Goldman	10	0	10	3	20	3
Heat	John Cockerill	British Race Courses	12	0	16	3	28	3
Semi	John Cockerill	Captain James Cook	12	0	12	0	24	0

That’s a lot of information, but how much does it actually tell us? Well, if we aggregate the totals, then it looks like this: -

Steven Marc Rhodes	25	0	29	0	54	0
John Cockerill	24	0	28	3	52	3
Lynn Edwards	23	0	28	0	51	0
Frances Slack	22	0	27	3	49	3
Isabelle Heward	21	0	26	0	47	0
Mohan Mudigonda	21	2	24	6	45	8

Does that help us to make predictions? Not necessarily. What it does do is help us make observations. One very interesting thing that the table reveals is that the contenders with the lowest aggregate specialist scores also have the lowest aggregate GK scores, and those with the highest specialists also have the highest GKs. Both Mohan and Isabelle had good enough general knowledge to overhaul 2 point deficits in their semis. However, with the quality of the field in a grand final, it would be extremely difficult to do the same again. Put in simple terms, if you don’t manage to be, at the very least, at the leader’s shoulder when you turn around for home, then it’s going to be extremely difficult.

So does the fact that Steven Marc Rhodes heads the aggregate totals make him favourite? Good question. It certainly suggests that he’s going to go well. However if we look beyond the aggregate we can make an observation there. Steven produced a good score of 12 on Specialist in his heat, but a brilliant score of 13 in his semi. On the other hand he produced a decent 10 on GK in his semi, but a brilliant 19 on GK in his heat. It just suggests a little inconsistency. Now, if he produces a specialist round like his semi, together with a GK round like his heat, then he’s a strong favourite. However if he produces a specialist round like his heat, and a specialist round like his semi, then it could be a lot closer.

You could say something similar about John Cockerill’s specialist rounds. He scored 12 in both, which makes his semi performance notably better than his heat. What you can say about John’s GK rounds are that they are both extremely good performances, and there’s no reason to suggest he won’t replicate this in the final. I’m not going to make predictions about who will win, but if I were I’d definitely have John on the podium.

Our two mid-table contenders, Lynn Edwards and Frances Slack are interesting. Compared with her SS round in the heat, Lynn underperformed in the semi, while Frances held her form well in the semi SS round, while underperforming in the GK compared with her fantastic 17 in the heat. This is just my feeling, and by all means feel free to disagree, but I always feel happier about the chances of contenders who produce consistently impressive GK performances. Predicting how someone is going to do on Specialist is a very inexact Science – there are so many things which can go wrong and foil weeks of diligent preparation.  However, if you’ve had two impressive GK performances in heat and semi, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that you’re more likely to do so in the final as well. So, of the two I just fancy Lynn Edwards’ chances a little more, despite her relatively modest specialist in the heat.

Does that mean I’m completely dismissing the chances of LAM readers Isabelle Heward and Mohan Mudigonda? No, not at all, that would be a foolish thing to do. What I am saying is that I believe that it will require a better performance than either managed in heat and semi if they are going to win. Now, as we know, the winner will be the player who deserves it on the day, who puts in the best overall performance in the final. But I can’t help hoping that Isabelle, appearing in her first final after so many semi-final appearances, goes well. But then I hope that everyone can do themselves justice. All of these contenders can feel very proud about what they have achieved in Mastermind this year, and will have nothing to be ashamed of whatever happens in the final. Nonetheless, I wish them all luck, and hope that they will be able to sit back when al the dust has settled, and be happy that they did the best they could.