Shall we have a look at the statistics, dearly
beloved? Why not?
Kyle
Nagendra
|
The X-Men Films
|
9
|
2
|
11
|
2
|
20
|
4
|
The Films of James Cameron
|
14
|
0
|
12
|
4
|
26
|
4
|
|
Aggregate
|
23
|
2
|
23
|
6
|
46
|
8
|
|
Brian
Chesney
|
The Giordano Bruno Novels of SJ
Parris
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
1
|
23
|
1
|
Harold Wilson
|
15
|
0
|
15
|
1
|
30
|
1
|
|
Aggregate
|
26
|
0
|
27
|
2
|
53
|
2
|
|
Ken
Morland
|
The Works of HP Lovecraft
|
9
|
1
|
11
|
0
|
20
|
1
|
Red Dwarf
|
14
|
0
|
14
|
3
|
28
|
3
|
|
Aggregate
|
23
|
1
|
25
|
3
|
48
|
4
|
|
Michael
Taylor
|
The films of Paul Thomas
Anderson
|
11
|
0
|
12
|
0
|
23
|
0
|
U2
|
14
|
1
|
14
|
4
|
28
|
5
|
|
Aggregate
|
25
|
1
|
26
|
4
|
51
|
5
|
|
Alfred
Williams
|
The Life and Music of Eric Satie
|
10
|
0
|
15
|
1
|
25
|
1
|
The Life and Times of Alfred the
Great
|
15
|
0
|
16
|
3
|
31
|
3
|
|
Aggregate
|
25
|
0
|
31
|
4
|
56
|
4
|
|
Ben
Holmes
|
The Graphic Novels of Daniel
Clowes
|
10
|
2
|
13
|
0
|
23
|
0
|
Dr. Who 2005 - date
|
15
|
0
|
14
|
1
|
29
|
1
|
|
Aggregate
|
25
|
2
|
27
|
1
|
52
|
1
|
Now, let’s state for the record that
statistics only tell you so much. Any of the 6 people who reach a Mastermind
Grand Final CAN win it. All the statistics tell us is who is most likely to do
it based on performance in the series so far. So what do these statistics tell
us?
Both Kyle Nagendra and Ken Morland
look less likely to win than the other finalists, according to the statistics.
Kyle had a fine GK round in the semis, but he was a couple of points behind the
leaders as the half time oranges were brought out. He certainly can’t afford
that in the final, and even then his GK score last night, good as it was, was
still the joint lowest of our 6 finalists. Can he win? Of course he can, but the formbook points
to a lower finish than that.
Ken Morland looked shocked when it
was announced that he had won his semi and was through to the final. His semi
final performance was similar to Kyle’s and again, he’ll need to do a little better
on his specialist if he’s not going to be behind going into the GK. His semi
final GK again was joint lowest in the semis. Can Ken win? Sure he can, but
again, my gut feeling is that he’ll be amongst the chasing pack.
Next contender of this all male group
whose chances we should look at is Michael Taylor. If you look at the aggregate
scores of Michael, Ben and Brian, there is virtually nothing to choose between
them. Looking at Michael’s scores, what they reveal is that this is a contender
who performs at a consistently high level. The evidence suggests that he’ll
prepare well for his specialist, which means it will all come down to GK. His
chances must be taken seriously. I think the most likely outcome for him is a
podium spot, but he can win it, make no doubt.
I’d say the same for Ben Holmes too.
His GK aggregate is slightly higher than Michael’s, but there’s really nothing
in it. Again, I want to stress this, Ben’s stats suggest that he is perfectly
capable of becoming a Mastermind champion, and a worthy one he would be. The
fact that I’m not tipping him to win has a great deal more to do with the
quality of our last two contenders than any deficiency in Ben.
Twist my arm behind my back and force
me down off the fence, and I’d tell you that I think two of the contenders are
more likely winners than the other 4. The first of this dynamic duo is Brian Chesney.
Brian is a former runner up – last time out in 2014 he lost out on passes to
our own Clive Dunning. Now there is a precedent to this. In 2003, the first
series of the Humphrys Ers, the great Geoff Thomas was runner up to Andy Page.
3 years later he came back and carried all before him in the series that saw my
own Mastermind debut. Consider also the fact that Brian is a Brain of Britain
runner up, and you can see how foolish it would be to dismiss Brian’s chances.
I have never seen him put in an under par performance in his 5 Mastermind
appearances so far. I can’t see that he won’t be in the reckoning. However, to win
he’ll have to beat a very serious contender indeed.
Alfred Williams looks like a winner
to me. There – sorry Alfred, I’ve maybe jinxed your chances there. But every
single round he’s put in so far has been quality. In particular that 15 on GK
in the semis was truly outstanding – and that after a 16 on GK in the heats.
There’s an air of assurance about Alfred when he’s in the chair – he looks as
if he never expects to get one wrong, and he doesn’t let it bother him in the
slightest on the few occasions when he does. So yes, I think the most likely
winners are Brian and Alfred, and of the two, I just think that Alfred has
looked more likely during this series.
But hey, what do I know? There may
only be 5 GK questions in the whole show that you don’t know, but if they all
come out in the middle of your own round, what can you do? Anyone is capable of
having a bad night – although the better quizzer that you are the fewer and
further between these should be. I wish all 6 contenders the very best of
retrospective luck, and hope that you all enjoyed the experience.
The final itself will be shown on Good Friday, so no Mastermind next week. Shame.
The final itself will be shown on Good Friday, so no Mastermind next week. Shame.